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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.26 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 9, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model