4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 48 yards to ATL 7, Center-45-R.Lovato. 35-A.Williams to ATL 14 for 7 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.99 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 55, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model