Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(9:01) 9-C.Nizialek punts 35 yards to PHI 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.23 EP
70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model