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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Atlanta Falcons 6

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 35, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model