Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 68

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

(5:45) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan sacked at ATL 22 for -10 yards (97-J.Hargrave).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.80 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 68, worth -3.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.79 EP