Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 82

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

(11:18) 9-C.Nizialek punts 62 yards to PHI 20, Center-47-J.Harris. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 31 for 11 yards (47-J.Harris; 40-K.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.01 EP
55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model