Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 81

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

(4:32) 9-C.Nizialek punts 31 yards to 50, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.45 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 81, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model