KC @ NE — 4th & Data

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HC Andy Reid

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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick

Sunday 2019-12-08 · 16:25 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

38.8%

61.2%

🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE defense: -0.265 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
KC offense: +0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.267 EPA/dropback in prior starts
NE offense: -0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 21

–

NE 26

Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

KC

Morris Claiborne CB Out Shoulder

Rashad Fenton CB Out Hamstring

Damien Williams RB Out Rib

Frank Clark DE Questionable Shoulder

Jordan Lucas S Questionable Illness

NE

Byron Cowart DT Questionable Head

Ted Karras C Questionable Knee

Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee

Marcus Cannon T Questionable Illness

Patrick Chung S Questionable Heel

Julian Edelman WR Questionable Shoulder

Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin

Mohamed Sanu WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 23

–

NE 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 12:43 TD NE (12:43) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 11-J.Edelman for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. flea flicker KC 0 – NE 6
Q1 07:17 FG KC (7:17) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 3 – NE 7
Q2 13:14 TD KC (13:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 17-M.Hardman for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – NE 7
Q2 09:37 TD KC (9:37) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 87-T.Kelce. 87-T.Kelce up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – NE 7
Q2 01:02 FG KC (1:02) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 20 – NE 7
Q3 08:50 FG KC (8:50) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 23 – NE 7
Q3 04:30 TD NE (4:30) 38-B.Bolden right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 23 – NE 13
Q4 11:45 FG NE (11:45) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. KC 23 – NE 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NE 4th & 11 at the 41

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 48%

(11:09) 7-J.Bailey punts 33 yards to KC 8, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 17 for 9 yards (51-J.Bentley). NE 7-Bailey 32nd punt inside 20, new single-season franchise record.
Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 30

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP

p(convert) 55% p(FG) 75%

(7:17) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q1 NE 4th & 3 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 87%

(2:06) 2-N.Folk 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-T.Kpassagnon), Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey, RECOVERED by KC-35-C.Ward at KC 35. 35-C.Ward to KC 42 for 7 yards (58-J.Collins).
Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 27

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 81%

(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Edelman.
Q2 KC 4th & 6 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%

(3:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NE 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-23-A.Watts.
Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(2:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to KC 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 26 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater). Penalty on KC-11-D.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on KC-23-A.Watts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.
Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 13

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 95%

(1:02) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 33

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 66% p(FG) 69%

(11:10) 39-S.Ware up the middle to NE 31 for 2 yards (71-D.Shelton; 53-K.Van Noy).
Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 23

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP

p(convert) 54% p(FG) 87%

(8:50) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.
Q3 NE 4th & 15 at the 81

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(7:28) 7-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to KC 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 44 for 7 yards (18-M.Slater, 34-R.Burkhead).
Q3 KC 4th & 19 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24%

(5:19) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 43-N.Ebner, Center-41-J.Winchester, ball out of bounds at KC 19.
Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 11

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

(11:45) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q4 KC 4th & 5 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(10:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to NE 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-11-D.Robinson.
Q4 NE 4th & 12 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 26%

(7:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to KC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(5:11) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to NE 32, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu.
Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 29 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 77%

(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle to KC 12 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).
Q4 NE 4th & 3 at the 5 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

(1:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 11-J.Edelman (21-B.Breeland).