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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 27

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 37, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.34 EP