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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 29

New England Patriots 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady scrambles left tackle to KC 12 for 17 yards (32-T.Mathieu).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.95 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP