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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 11

New England Patriots 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(11:45) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.70 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model