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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 13

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model