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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 19 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(5:19) 2-D.Colquitt punt is BLOCKED by 43-N.Ebner, Center-41-J.Winchester, ball out of bounds at KC 19.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.59 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 65, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 23, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model