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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 50

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 2-D.Colquitt punts 28 yards to NE 22, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-23-A.Watts.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.81 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model