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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 30

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:17) 7-H.Butker 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.69 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP