Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 78

New England Patriots 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 7-J.Bailey punts 56 yards to KC 22, Center-49-J.Cardona. 17-M.Hardman to KC 26 for 4 yards (18-M.Slater). Penalty on KC-11-D.Robinson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on KC-23-A.Watts, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 13 yards, enforced at KC 26.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 78, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model