Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 77

Kansas City Chiefs 23 – New England Patriots 16

(10:30) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to NE 20, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-11-D.Robinson.

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.35 EP
55% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 77, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model