Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 50

New England Patriots 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 23

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 7-J.Bailey punts 32 yards to KC 18, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.33 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 50, worth -2.62 EP

KICK -1.53 EP

26% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
74% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model