4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌨 Snow Spread -6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
61.1%
BUF
38.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.208 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL): +0.336 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.169 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph
  • BUF on 3 more days rest than BAL

Predicted Final Score

BAL 23
–
BUF 20
Projected margin: BAL by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

BAL

Marquise Brown WR Questionable Ankle
Marlon Humphrey CB Questionable Thigh
Patrick Onwuasor LB Questionable Ankle
Seth Roberts WR Questionable Knee

BUF

Ty Nsekhe T Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24
–
BUF 17

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:00 FG BAL (5:00) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 13:37 TD BAL (13:37) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 86-N.Boyle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Flip pass, caught 2 yds. into end zone. BAL 9 – BUF 0
  • Q2 08:24 FG BUF (8:24) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:30 FG BUF (:30) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BAL 10 – BUF 6
  • Q3 13:44 TD BAL (13:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 81-H.Hurst for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-J.Hughes]. Flag pattern, caught at BUF 41. BAL 16 – BUF 6
  • Q3 11:31 FG BUF (11:31) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BAL 17 – BUF 9
  • Q4 09:54 TD BAL (9:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 83-W.Snead IV for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at goal line, crossing to right. BAL 23 – BUF 9
  • Q4 07:04 TD BUF (7:04) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 10-C.Beasley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught along sideline at BAL 2. BAL 24 – BUF 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 30%

    (10:43) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 12 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:26) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to BUF 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-42-P.DiMarco.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 91%

    (5:00) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:07) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 16-D.Thomas to BAL 33 for 1 yard (33-S.Neal).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:40) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to BUF 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-A.Roberts pushed ob at BUF 31 for 15 yards (28-J.Richards).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (8:24) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 17 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 40%

    (3:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal. PENALTY on BAL-16-D.Thomas, Unnecessary Roughness, 2 yards, enforced at BAL 8. Penalty for signaling fair catch, but subsequently making block.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 6 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:06) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to BAL 49, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 73%

    (:30) 4-S.Hauschka 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 73%

    (11:31) 4-S.Hauschka 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:59) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55%

    (6:07) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BAL 29, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 13 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (3:03) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (2:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (:31) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to BUF 22, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (15:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 29 yards to BAL 49, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (5:40) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark; 28-J.Richards).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 8 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (1:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown (24-M.Peters). Receiver and coverage at BAL 1, crossing from right.