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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 18

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 4-S.Hauschka 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.22 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 18, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model