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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 75

Buffalo Bills 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to BAL 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model