Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(13:39) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.53 EP
52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -3.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model