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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.05 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model