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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 18

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model