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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 8 at the 16

Buffalo Bills 17 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown (24-M.Peters). Receiver and coverage at BAL 1, crossing from right.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.57 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP