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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 28 for 7 yards (36-C.Clark; 28-J.Richards).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model