Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 78

Buffalo Bills 9 – Baltimore Ravens 17

(15:00) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 29 yards to BAL 49, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.51 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model