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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 54

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Buffalo Bills 9

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.72 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 54, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP