4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 90

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to BAL 49, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.48 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 90, worth -5.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.59 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model