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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 💨 Windy Spread -10.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

PHI
50.9%
MIA
49.1%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA): -0.059 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 22
–
MIA 20
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

PHI

Zach Ertz TE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Howard RB Questionable Shoulder

MIA

Ryan Lewis CB Questionable Chest
Ken Webster CB Questionable Ankle
Ken Crawley CB Questionable Shoulder
Steven Parker S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 31
–
MIA 37

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:00 TD PHI (14:00) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 26-M.Sanders for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 10:15 FG PHI (10:15) (Field Goal formation) 77-A.Dillard reported in as eligible. 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 10 – MIA 0
  • Q1 03:14 TD MIA (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 10 – MIA 6
  • Q2 11:13 FG PHI (11:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 13 – MIA 7
  • Q2 04:44 TD MIA (4:44) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 2-M.Haack. 2-M.Haack pass short middle to 7-J.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – MIA 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD PHI (:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 19-J.Arcega-Whiteside for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – MIA 14
  • Q3 11:51 TD PHI (11:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 27 – MIA 14
  • Q3 08:51 TD MIA (8:51) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 11-D.Parker for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 28 – MIA 20
  • Q3 01:17 TD MIA (1:17) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 28 – MIA 26
  • Q4 11:11 TD MIA (11:11) 42-P.Laird left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 28 – MIA 32
  • Q4 03:42 FG MIA (3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. PHI 28 – MIA 37
  • Q4 01:55 FG PHI (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston. PHI 31 – MIA 37

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 27 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-42-P.Laird.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 72%

    (10:15) (Field Goal formation) 77-A.Dillard reported in as eligible. 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:32) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to PHI 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 84-G.Ward.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:55) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to MIA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 16 for no gain (39-C.James).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 37%

    (3:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 7 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (11:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 99%

    (4:44) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 2-M.Haack. 2-M.Haack pass short middle to 7-J.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 72%

    (4:36) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (14:52) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-45-R.Lovato. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 20 for 12 yards (16-M.Hollins). PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 8.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:36) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to MIA 27, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 48-M.Sherels. PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 27. Penalty on MIA-33-J.Wiltz, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 51%

    (5:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to PHI 30 for 8 yards (21-R.Darby).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 13 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 65%

    (3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 90%

    (1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 6 at the 59 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 28 yards to PHI 31, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.