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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(3:14) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep left to 11-D.Parker for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model