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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) (Field Goal formation) 77-A.Dillard reported in as eligible. 4-J.Elliott 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.16 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model