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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 34 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 11-D.Parker to PHI 30 for 8 yards (21-R.Darby).

The Three Options

GO +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.11 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model