4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 1

Miami Dolphins 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(4:44) (Field Goal formation) Direct snap to 2-M.Haack. 2-M.Haack pass short middle to 7-J.Sanders for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 1, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model