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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 33

Miami Dolphins 34 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(3:42) (Field Goal formation) 7-J.Sanders 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +3.94 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model