Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Miami Dolphins 26

What Actually Happened

(14:52) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to MIA 8, Center-45-R.Lovato. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 20 for 12 yards (16-M.Hollins). PENALTY on MIA-30-C.Lammons, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at MIA 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.23 EP
72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model