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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 30

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(4:36) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model