Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 56

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Miami Dolphins 0

(5:55) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to MIA 16, Center-45-R.Lovato. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 16 for no gain (39-C.James).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.41 EP
62% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model