Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 79

Miami Dolphins 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(11:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 27 yards to MIA 48, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by MIA-42-P.Laird.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.06 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.40 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model