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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 16 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 28 – Miami Dolphins 37

What Actually Happened

(1:55) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.56 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 29, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model