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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 16:05 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LA
36.6%
ARI
63.4%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: -0.108 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ARI on 8 more days rest than LA
  • ARI offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
ARI 24
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

LA

Gerald Everett TE Out Knee
Darious Williams CB Out Ankle
Rob Havenstein T Out Knee

ARI

Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Foot
Kyler Murray QB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 34
–
ARI 7

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:00 FG LA (10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 3 – ARI 0
  • Q2 14:22 TD LA (14:22) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – ARI 0
  • Q2 02:48 TD LA (2:48) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – ARI 0
  • Q2 00:04 FG LA (:04) 4-G.Zuerlein 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 20 – ARI 0
  • Q3 08:49 TD LA (8:49) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 18-C.Kupp for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – ARI 0
  • Q3 08:39 TD LA (8:39) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right intended for 11-L.Fitzgerald INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Rapp at ARI 31. 24-T.Rapp for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 33 – ARI 0
  • Q4 08:43 TD ARI (8:43) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 34 – ARI 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (9:03) 4-A.Lee punts 42 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 34 for 6 yards (38-C.Banjo).

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 88%

    (5:59) 4-G.Zuerlein 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 17 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 26%

    (3:27) 4-A.Lee punts 34 yards to LA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 50%

    (11:01) 4-A.Lee punts 39 yards to LA 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-42-D.Gardeck.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:31) 6-J.Hekker punts 44 yards to ARI 20, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 25 for 5 yards (21-D.Deayon).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:03) 4-A.Lee punts 49 yards to LA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:00) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 8 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 30%

    (12:12) 4-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-16-T.Sherfield.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 35%

    (6:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 49 for -2 yards (sack split by 99-A.Donald and 90-M.Brockers).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 13 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 28%

    (4:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 11, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:32) 4-A.Lee punts 48 yards to LA 40, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (13:58) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley left tackle to ARI 20 for -1 yards (59-J.Walker).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63%

    (12:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:40) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left tackle to ARI 47 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 82%

    (2:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:30) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas. PENALTY on LA-88-M.Thomas, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39.