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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(3:27) 4-A.Lee punts 34 yards to LA 19, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.77 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.29 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model