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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 34 for 6 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.64 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 30, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model