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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 13 at the 78

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to LA 22, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.12 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 78, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model