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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:40) 6-J.Hekker punts 39 yards to ARI 36, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.59 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model