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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 28

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.08 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 28, worth -1.85 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.79 EP