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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 6 at the 9

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(10:00) 4-G.Zuerlein 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 9, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP