Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 80

Los Angeles Rams 34 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:30) (Punt formation) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to ARI 39, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-88-M.Thomas. PENALTY on LA-88-M.Thomas, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at ARI 39.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.61 EP
73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 80, worth -1.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model