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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 43

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 4-A.Lee punts 39 yards to LA 4, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by ARI-42-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +4.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.84 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model