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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Rams 34

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake left tackle to ARI 47 for 2 yards (69-S.Joseph).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.12 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model